The Nature of the Meadowlands - With author Jim Wright

Rutgers Cooperative Extension

of Middlesex County

May 2013

Calendar of Events

 Unless otherwise noted, the following events take place at the

EARTH Center, in Davidson’s Mill Pond Park 42 Riva Ave. North Brunswick, NJ

The following programs are available this month. For more info contact 732-398-5260.

We are on Facebook. Search “Earth Center of Middlesex County”, then “Like Us”.

Last minute Reminder

Tuesday, April 30, 6 pm to 8 pm

Watershed-Friendly Resident Program with Lawrence Brook Watershed Partnership

Learn to manage your property in an environmentally-friendly way.

Register with LBWP to attend. 732-249-LBWP (5297)

EARTH Center, Davidson’s Mill Pond Park,

May’s offerings are as follows:

Wednesday,  May 1,    6 – 9 pm

Beginner Farmer Series- Suburban Organic Homesteading

An exciting new program for those interested in farming or

implementing farming techniques on their residential property.

Monroe, NJ location disclosed upon registration.

Register at 732-398-5262

Saturday May 4, 10 am - 4 pm

Master Gardeners Garden Q & A Day

4-H Youth Center, 645 Cranbury Rd., East Brunswick, NJ

Gardeners can learn about best gardening and landscaping practices.

Visit with our Master Gardeners and take home some great quality plants .

An enormous variety of vegetables, flowering vines, annuals and perennials will be available.

Saturday, May 11, 9 am- Noon

Beginner Beekeeping

Have you ever wanted to become an amateur apiarist? Try this introduction.

Learn the basics on establishing a hive on your own property.

Weather permitting there will be a brief walk outside.

Register by May 8 at 732-398-5262

Saturday, May 11, 8 am-2 pm,

May 11, 4-H Yard Sale

Looking for some good bargains? Join 4-H for this sale.(raindate: May 12) 

4-H Log Cabin/Youth Center, 645 Cranbury Rd, East Brunswick.

Saturday, May 18, 10 am – Noon 

Organic Lawn & Landcare for Your Home

We will present surefire ways to have a beautiful lawn without pesticides.

Dress for some outside demonstrations.

Register by May 15 at 732-398-5262

If you would like to be removed from our list, simply reply with

“remove from IPCT” in the subject.  Thank you.

Rutgers Cooperative Extension, a unit of the Rutgers New Jersey Agricultural Experiment Station

is an equal opportunity program provider and employer.

Join PROJECT MOVE-OUT: free bulk waste recycling initiative for Rutgers students living in New Brunswick

Rutgers University and the City of New Brunswick are partnering in Project Move Out to recover discarded furniture, appliances and textiles in order to keep these items out of landfills and reduce our carbon footprint.

Project Move Out provides for FREE curbside pick-up of bulk items ONLY for Rutgers students who pre-register between April 29 - May 22 (noon).  The collection will take place between May 23-29.  Items eligible for pickup include:

• Appliances (refrigerators, window air conditioning units, microwaves)
• Electronics (televisions, video game consoles, cell phones, computers, monitors, printers)
• Furniture (mattresses, couches, chairs, tables, book cases, desks, rugs)

Registration for Project Move Out will open April 29.  Be part of the solution and check back between April 29 - May 22 to register!

For more informaton visit the website - http://ruoffcampus.rutgers.edu/projectmoveout

Butterfly Park is ready for butteflies and people!

Thanks to the many volounteers - youth council members, community garden members and other residents, all the flower beds are mulched, the paths are cleaned and the park looks beautiful!

See more pictures on the Friends gallery - click here.

Councilman Jim Wendell found a large female as she came out to the road on her way to the pools. His son Matthew found many spring peeper and carfuly removed them from the road.

The rain that started late in the afternoon brought a few salamaders and people to Beekman Road yesterday.  Over the three hours we walked along the road we saw six large spotted salamander females crossing the road and heading into the woods toward the vernal pools. Near the pool the spring peepers and chorus frogs were so loud it was hard to have a conversation.

Many people joined us with falshlights and umbrellas to search for amphibian. Councilman Jim Wendell, his wife Barbara and their two sons told us they were excited to finally see the famous East Brunswick salamanders!  People came East and South Brunswick, and even from Plainsboro and Marlboro. Lisa and Rob saw the Facebook update from the Road and decided to come see for themselves. After walking for a while we found another female for them to see.

We have not seen any egg masses in the pools yet, and we simply can't tell if the migration is over. We do not speak Salamander and cannot ask them...  The road will be closed for one or two more nights.  As always - inforamtion will be posted here and an email will be sent to all Friends members (membership is always Free).

To learn more about New Jersey amphibians and to hear their calls - check out the NJDEP webpage.

Safety Comes First (for us and the amphibians): NEVER venture onto the road if it is not closed! Always park along and cross Church Lane very carefully. It is dark and cars drive fast and don't expect people out there at night. EVERYONE should have their OWN flashlight. Walk carefully and watch for amphibians. A car or foot on one and the results are largely the same.   

Beekman Road is likely to be closed tonight with the warm rain expected for this afternoon and evening. We are monitoring the weather closely. While we suspect that the salamander migration to the pools is complete, it is possible there could be some stragglers, or some non-breeding wanderers (not every individual in the population breeds every year) or even some movement back across the road to the summering habitat. But there may also be frog movement to the pools and in the surrounding woodland habitat as many frog species breed later than the spotted salamanders (our vernal pools have green frogs, bullfrogs, northern gray treefrogs, spring peepers, chorus frogs and pickerel frogs). Rainy spring nights are often fun amphibian nights.

Safety Comes First (for us and the amphibians): NEVER venture onto the road if it is not closed! Always park along and cross Church Lane very carefully. It is dark and cars drive fast and don't expect people out there at night. EVERYONE should have their OWN flashlight. Walk carefully and watch for amphibians. A car or foot on one and the results are largely the same.    

I remember the first time I saw a tadpole in mid-metamorphosis. It still had that small fishy mouth, and swimming tail…and then these strange little legs sticking out. I had studied all that in books, but to see it happening right in front of me was simply mesmerizing. How amazing that a living thing can so completely change its body! We can’t do that!

Since then, I’ve compiled a bucket list of nature experiences that I want to have. I want to see a Peregrine Falcon knock a bird out of the sky. I want to see the Northern Lights. The list goes on. And ever since I first heard about it in college, I’ve wanted to experience an amphibian migration, the kind where thousands of frogs, toads, and salamanders come out at night to travel to their annual meeting at the local breeding pool.

And I wanted to be one of those people who get to carry those amphibians across roads that intersect their path. Well I finally got to check that one off the bucket list thanks to the Amphibian Crossing Project, a program coordinated by the Conserve Wildlife Foundation of NJ.

Video - Click here or on the picture to see what my experience was like.

The crossing site where I was stationed occurs on a heavily trafficked road in Sussex County, New Jersey. And the only way that anyone knows about it is because of the discerning eyes of volunteers - thank Goodness for volunteers! - who noticed a huge number of frogs and salamanders moving en masse across the busy road. It turns out that the area also supports a large population of Jefferson salamanders, a species of special concern in New Jersey. 

Unfortunately, it’s unlikely that this site will ever be closed to traffic, but the Conserve Wildlife Foundation is studying it as a possible location for an amphibian culvert system. Special tunnels that allow amphibians to migrate under roadways have been used to good effect in other states like Massachusetts. This would be the first site in New Jersey to use them.

To support such a measure, the Conserve Wildlife Foundation and their partners need to find out as much as possible about the site and the amphibians that live there, so our efforts involve much more than simply ferrying critters across! Decked out in our finest rain gear, thermals, and reflective vests, we mark down how many amphibians we cross – including how many we can’t save, unfortunately – what kinds of amphibians we cross, and how many cars pass through.

My first night as an amphibian crossing guard was a bit unusual. The weather forecast was changing constantly, and when I arrived, there was no rain – or amphibians – to be seen! Still, our small team took up position along the road’s edge, ready for any frogs and salamanders that might step out from the shadowy forest. And they did…in fits and starts, just like the rain. In the end, the team recorded information on more than 1300 frogs, toads, and salamanders that made an appearance that year.

It was admittedly a roller coaster of an experience for me, from my anguish over those I couldn’t reach in time, to my satisfaction from releasing a wriggling salamander safely on the other side of the road. At the end of the long night, I had the distinct pleasure of feeling like I had made a tangible difference. Wow, what must my bucket list have in store for me next? I can’t wait!

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Kelly’s experiences as an amphibian crossing guard are captured in “Amphibian Crossing,” a special episode of Nature in a New York Minute. Watch the episode at www.NatureMinute.com.Kelly Rypkema is a biologist and host of the video series Nature in a New York Minute. From communicating with ants to interpreting the secret life of squirrels, Kelly showcases ways to be actively involved with nature – even in the concrete jungle. For nature news and events, follow Kelly on Facebook (Nature Minute)  or Twitter (@KellyRypkema), or subscribe to her blog.

For 10 years, my daughter Hannah has spent many raw rainy nights on Beekman Road during the salamander migration, always with a big smile on her face. She has been in the vernal pools countless times and with a pair of waders on is in the middle before I've even reached the edge. It's a special place for her and walking the road or being in the pools together has always been a very special time that we've been able to share. She was home from college last Tuesday and was able to be out on the Big Night. A few days later she sent me this beautiful passage about being out on Beekman Road and what it means to her:

"It is the sound you first hear. The sounds that to an untrained ear sound a lot like a bird, maybe, or an unfamiliar animal call. But as you listen closely, you realize that they are all individual sounds. As you make your way down the road, the sound gets louder and louder. Using your flashlight, you scan the road for whatever they say you should be looking for. Looking to both sides of you, you do not understand what kind of small amphibian could navigate through the seemingly vast forest framing this road. Your mind gets lost in your thoughts and fears since you are on an unfamiliar road in the dark, but then all of a sudden something in your stream of light catches your eye. It looks as if it is part of the road, it is yellow and black, just like the road you have been walking. But then you look again and it seems to have moved. Crouching down, you see a mass of flashlights now quickly walking towards you seeming excited that you may have found something. You realize that you did, you found your first spotted salamander. This is what you are looking for; this is what you have been patrolling the road attempting to save. You feel a sense of happiness that you single-handedly found this creature and brought him to the other side of the road to mate and continue his life. You were part of a movement to save lives, and you did.

You finally decide to see where they are heading, why they are trying to cross the road. You turn to enter the woods, and each step you take, the sound gets louder and almost overbearing. Your thoughts are now lost within your mind, because you can no longer hear yourself think. But somehow, you still feel as ease. You look around; using your other senses now because you can hear nothing but the sound, and dodge the prickers while you take in deep breaths of the crisp, forest air. All of a sudden, the ground feels different to you and you find yourself sinking in a bit. As you were navigating through the brush, you had been looking down; you finally look up and see this pool in front of you. By the volume of the sound you figure out that this is the source. You realize that this is the vernal pool that the salamanders are making their way to. You shine your flashlight around, still not knowing the exact source of the sound. On a branch close to the edge of the pool you see a small frog. A spring peeper, you think, because you know you are there to help save them too. But how could this little frog be making all the noise, you wonder and are amazed. You look again into the pool and see a spotted salamander gracefully swimming around through the leaves. It finally hits you; you were a part of saving these helpless critters. You, yourself, are there to save them, to keep them out of harms way, and you, are a part of why they are still alive."

It's hard to find a better word for last night than, WOW! Everything came together perfectly, weather, salamanders, frogs and people for a spectacular night on Beekman Road. During the day, above normal temperatures combined with heavy rain setting the stage for what we hoped would be a big night. And for anyone that came out, it would have been very hard to be disappointed. We were a little concerned around 5pm when the rain tapered off and the skies began to clear, but when the first spotted salamander appeared around 7pm, there was hope. Loud choruses of spring peepers carried to the road from the vernal pools but it took another half hour or so for the second spotted salamander to appear. As more and more people began to filter onto the road, so did the spotted salamanders and spring peepers and from there on it was a steady movement of both. Gauging by the vast number of smiles, crouched circles of people and numerous camera flashes, it seems like everyone had a chance to see at least a few spotted salamanders and spring peepers crossing Beekman Road. Most people I spoke with said they saw lots of salamanders and two posted reports from last night both noted seeing 20+. It is hard to estimate how many salamanders may have made their way to the vernal pools last night but it must be in the hundreds, maybe much more when the entire landscape around the pools is figured in. We also tried to estimate the number of people that came out to see the migration and that was easily over 100 too. So all in all, an absolutely amazing and spectacular night. It tooks a few false starts and some patience, but it was worth it!

Huge kudos are due the salamanders and frogs that made the night perfect for everyone, all the people that came out to walk the road, and the Township Administration, Public Works and Police Department for insuring that our last remaining population of spotted salamanders can safely cross Beekman Road year after year.

So, what's next? Since this is only the first night we had significant movement, and spotted salamander migrations often happen in pulses with one big night and then some smaller ones, we will likely close the road a few more times this spring. We are also going to try and merge one of the road closings with a hike to the vernal pools. If you have only been to the road, but have never ventured through the woods and been up close to the spring peeper choruses, you will be in for quite a treat. It's hard to believe how those tiny frogs can make so much noise!

Stay tuned, there is much more to come...at the vernal pools, Moth Nights, Farmers Markets, Nature Author talk, Butterfly Park....

Beekman Road will be closed tonight. As we have noted over and over in these posts, nature is happily unpredictable and with each passing year we learn more and more about our migration and the triggers for movement.

With the warm humid temperatures last night and light rain very early this morning there wasa significant movement of spotted salamanders and frogs. While I was expecting some movement, I was surprised by what I saw this morning. I conducted a somewhat panicked pre-dawn sweep of the road and moved about a dozen spotted salamanders safely to the other side. Unfortunately two didn't make it, but we do the best we can.There was also a wonderful chorus of spring peepers at the vernal pools, a sure sign that spring has sprung! Hopefully tonight the weather will continue to be suitable and there will still be plenty of spotted salamanders and frogs to cross.

Click here for more information and a map

A few very important reminders:

Use extreme caution crossing Church Lane.

Dress for wet, raw weather.

Each person should have a flashlight with a good strong light.

Walk carefully and be on the lookout for tiny spring peepers and of course salamanders.

Let others know what you find so they can share in the fun.

We expect that Beekman Road will be closed tomorrow night. Forecasts have coalesced around an area of heavy rain and above normal temperatures beginning in the early morning hours Tuesday (around 4am right now) and continuing all day until dark. This is exactly the kind of weather we look for to trigger the migration. We can't guarantee anything, but the warm temperatures over the weekend and again today coupled with significant rain tomorrow sure look good. Since weather forecasts are simply predictions based on models, we will post another update tomorrow. 

If we close the road and you come out a few very important reminders: 

Use extreme caution crossing Church Lane.    

Dress for wet, raw weather.

Each person should have a flashlight with a good strong light.

Walk carefully and be on the lookout for tiny spring peepers and of course salamanders.

Let others know what you find so they can share in the fun.   

The recent road closing attracted lots of attention from the news media.  Although the salamanders did not move on the nights the road was closed, the story of the East Brunswick Amphibian Protection Project was featured in news articles and videos. To see some of the articles and videos aobut the project since it started in 2005 - Click here.

To get email with informatoin on road closing and other Friends projects - join the Friends, it's easy, free and your information will never be shared.  Click here!

We've had a few false starts over the past two weeks with the weather not panning out as forecast, but our eyes are on Tuesday night right now. If the forecast holds and I was a betting man (I'm not), I'd double down on Tuesday night for the salamander migration to occur. Of course, the odds are always in favor of the House and even sure hands sometimes lose, but the forecast between now and then really looks good to trigger movement. Yesterday was beautiful and warm. All the snow melted and saturated the ground. Today and tomorrow are forecast to be above-normal and nightime lows for Monday night are expected to remain above freezing. Sometime very late Monday night after midnight, rain is forecast to begin and continue through late afternoon on Tuesday. The rain may be heavy at times with totals now predicted between 1/2" and 3/4". That would be a good soaking rain. Temperatures on Tuesday are forecast to be in the low to mid-50's. All of these factors are what we want to see to trigger the salamanders to migrate. Of course as we've seen, forecasts can fizzle and leave us walking an empty road, but from the vantage point of Sunday morning, I'm thinking this would be a good bet to place. Stay tuned...      

Join at the East Brunswick Farmers Market, April 20th from 10am to 2pm at the East Brunswick Cultural Arts Center. 

For more information and  a list of vedors click here.

In the immortal words of Agent Maxwell Smart, last night we "Missed it by that much". If the temperature had been just 6 or 7 degrees warmer, we might just have had some movement. The rain actually caught me a bit off guard because I didn't expect it as early or as heavy as it turned out to be. I had checked NOAA early in the morning and saw a chance of light rain or snow showers and then a change to a heavy wet snow overnight. But when I walked out of my meeting yesterday at 3 in Pemberton and it was already a steady drizzle and 41 degrees I was surprised. My surprise turned to a slight concern at 4:30 when the drizzle became heavier and the temperature was still right around 40. Slight panic set in after that as the rain continued at 6 and puddles were forming, even though temperatures were dropping and in my gut I knew it was just too cold to trigger migration. But with the road not closed and knowing that there are always a lot of cars during rush hour, I couldn't help but head over there to make sure those expectations were correct. I've seen squished spotted salamanders on roads too many times and it is always horrible. I slowly drove the road over and over for about an hour and when the rain turned to snow and there were no salamanders, I finally felt comfortable enough to leave.

So, what is in store ahead? After the cold and snow from last night and this morning, we will finally be heading into a decidely warmer trend with temperatures this weekend near 50 and early next week well into the 50's. We may also get a shot at some rainfall on Monday night into Tuesday evening, but the forecast timing isn't great with the timeframe from about 7pm Monday through 6pm Tuesday. However, if we get a good soaking rain coupled with temperatures in the 50's we could finally have the trigger we've been patiently waiting for.

I think the Magic 8 Ball says it all for today. If I could find my Ouija Board that might help too. As we have said many times, predicting salamander migrations is difficult. Migration requires a combination of weather and ecological mechanisms. Yesterday I read an excellent paper on spotted salamander migration triggers: The effects of temperature and precipitation on the breeding migration of the spotted salamander (AMBYSTOMA MACULATUM). Sexton, O. J., C. Phillips, and J. E. Bramble. 1990. Copeia 1990:781-787. In this paper, the authors outline the following conditions that were important in their study:

3 day mean temperature of 41.9° F / 5.5° C

Soil temperature @ 30 cm greater than 39.2° F / 2.13° C

At least 0.16 inches / 0.4 cm of rainfall

A reversal of the soil temperature profile (surface is warmer than sub-surface)

I suspect we have not quite reached these thresholds yet along Beekman Road but we must be close. The scientists also found secondary factors that were less important but still influential related to lower air and soil temperatures. We have almost certainly reached those which is probably why we have seen some early movement of a few males. Today's weather forecast is as problematic as we've seen over the past week or so. There will be rain, but the temperatures are forecast to be right around 40 and they will likely be dropping at some point in the late afternoon or early evening when the precipitation is expected to turn to heavy wet snow. I don't expect that there will be a large movement tonight given what I'm seeing with the weather, but I also suspect we probably have to make a late call on this one as we see what develops. And the same may be true of tomorrow as well. We don’t want to close the road and inconvenience drivers for no reason but of course we also don’t want to not close the road and have movement.

I think the latest NOAA forecast from 3:57am gives a good sense of where things are:

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING...

AFTER DAYS OF ANTICIPATION, THE STORM THAT HAS BEEN WELL DISCUSSED,

BUT NOT NECESSARILY WELL MODELED IS BEGINNING TO IMPACT THE AREA.

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED PRECIPITATION, MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN

AFFECTING THE MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE AND SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL DELAWARE.

NORMALLY, AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT, CONFIDENCE INCREASES.

HOWEVER, THIS IS ONE OF THOSE ANOMALOUS EVENTS, WHERE THAT IS NOT

NECESSARILY THE CASE. WHILE OVERALL, THE MODELS HAVE A DECENT HANDLE

ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW, THERE ARE ENOUGH DIFFERENCES IN THE

INDIVIDUAL DETAILS TO CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASED UNCERTAINTY.

THE GENERAL FORECAST RATIONALE REMAINS THE SAME. PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY

RAIN SOUTH OF I-95 TODAY AND GENERALLY SNOW NORTH OF THERE. ITS MARCH, AND WITH

THE HIGHER SUN ANGLE, IT WILL BE TOUGH FOR IT TO ACCUMULATE MUCH

DURING THE DAY ON TREATED SURFACES UNLESS IT COMES DOWN HEAVY.

THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE PROBLEMATIC THIS EVENING. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD

TRANSITION TO SNOW AND THEN ITS JUST A QUESTION OF HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION IS

LEFT. SO IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION IS LEFT AND OF COURSE, WHAT THE

TEMPS ARE.

The weekend and next week feature a decidely warmer trend, so stay tuned....

It's Salamander Migration Quiz time - This should be very easy to answer for anyone that was on Beekman Road last week and that has been following along with these posts. Okay, so here is the quiz question: "What do the following all have in common? Pepto Bismol, Rolaids, Tums, Pepcid, Mylanta, Nexium..." If you answered, "they are all needed by anyone trying to predict the salamander migration this year", you are correct!

Once again, the weather forecast is very complex and complicates predicting what might happen. I suspect everyone knows that a very strong coastal low will be off the New Jersey coast Wednesday into early Thursday. It is expected to have loads of moisture with it. But there are many uncertainties about the storm and therefore, if it will trigger any salamander movement tomorrow evening. There are questions about the actual track of the storm, when the precipitation will start, whether central New Jersey will get mostly rain or snow, when rain might change to snow, temperatures aloft versus near the ground and a whole host of other meterological factors that just can't be pinned down at this point. From culling through numerous weather outlets, It seems like East Brunswick is likely to see a cold heavy rain at some point tomorrow that will then eventually change to a heavy wet accumulating snow. Temperatures are forecast for tomorrow afternoon somewhere around 40 and then dropping into the mid 30's during the night. My gut still tells me that air and ground temperatures will be too cold tomorrow, especially given how cold it has been this week. Nonetheless, we are carefully monitoring the situation and will likely decide what to do about closing the road tomorrow afternoon when we see what is happening. Stay tuned...in the meantime, here is the latest NOAA forcast discussion (these are always a good read):

EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, AN INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE

FOUND OVER EASTERN VIRGINIA. WHILE THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD MODEL

AGREEMENT IN THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE TAKING MOST OF WEDNESDAY

INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO SLOWLY TRACK OFFSHORE, THERE ARE DIFFERENCES

IN THE INTENSITY OF THE LOW PRESSURE AND ALSO THE THERMAL FIELDS

OVER OUR FORECAST AREA WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE THE TIMING OF

THE CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW FOR OUR AREA. THE NAM GIVES A

COLDER SOLUTION AS COMPARED TO THE GFS, AND NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS

ALSO SHOW GOOD DENDRITIC GROWTH FROM WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT,

ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. HOWEVER, BOUNDARY

LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN DETERMINING THE

CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW AND HOW LONG AN ACCUMULATING WET SNOW

WILL LAST. AS THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD OVERSPREADS OUR SOUTHWEST

ZONES EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, PORTIONS OF OUR SOUTHERN DELMARVA

WILL LIKELY SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT THE ONSET, WITH MORE IN THE WAY

OF JUST SNOW SEEN FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE MARYLAND/DELAWARE/SE

PENNSYLVANIA BORDER. A FEW INCHES OF WET SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE IN THIS

VICINITY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY. ELSEWHERE THROUGH

PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN DE AND SOUTHERN NJ, MODERATE TO AT TIMES HEAVY

RAIN IS EXPECTED DURING MUCH OF THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY. BY LATE

WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN/SNOW AND

EVENTUALLY JUST WET SNOW IS EXPECTED FOR THESE AREAS. THE GFS

CONTINUES TO SHOW A BANDING FEATURE OVER OUR SOUTHERN CWA INTO

WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WHICH WOULD LEAD TO HEAVIER PRECIP RATES, AND THE

NAM ALSO SHOWS SIGNIFICANT WRAP-AROUND PRECIP ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE

OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER.

Well we finally made it to March and despite the very cold temperatures last night, spring is really close. Snowdrops are blooming in my yard, a few male red-winged blackbirds are on territory, silver maple buds are swollen and daffodils and hyacinths are poking up through the ground. The only thing we could use now are some migrating spotted salamanders and nice loud choruses of spring peepers! So when will we see the salamanders and hear the peepers? Someone asked me today if I thought it would be this week and the only way I can answer is..."soon".

Once again the weather as it relates to a potential migration trigger is complex. There is almost certainly going to be a significant coastal storm in our area from Wednesday into early Thursday. But the models related to its track and temperature profiles are not in good agreement and according to the NOAA Forecast discussion much is up in the air despite the storm being only 72 hours away.

The current forecast seems to suggest that the storm will stay far enough off shore and to our south that central NJ will not get the brunt of it, and after Sandy, that's certainly good news. But that may not be good news for a salamander migration. At the moment, depending on the weather outlet, the percent chance of precipitation ranges from 30-50% during the day with light rain or showers to 50-70% at night with heavier amounts. On the face of it, this sounds pretty good. However, the migration is triggered by a combination of factors including precipitation and temperature. We typically want to see temperatures during the day in the mid-40's (or higher) and not dropping too quickly after dark. Just a few degrees too cold can stifle movement. Again, there is a bit of variability between the various weather outlets but all are trending a little bit colder than we'd like to see with ranges for the day between about 41 and 43 and then dropping back at night into the 30's. There is even a chance that we will see some snow!

So, what does this mean? Migration or no migration this week? From 72 hours out my gut tells me this won't be the one. But, the models will be revised countless times between now and then as the forecast is honed and we will be following it closely. I guess about the best we can say is stay tuned and it will be..."soon".

Consider joining the Friends to get the latest updates on the migration and all of our other innovative programs. Membership is free and so are our programs. We can also be found on Facebook where members can share their observations and photos.

Although we can't wait to finally see spotted salamanders and spring peepers and chorus frogs and green frogs (well, you get the picture) cross Beekman Road and migrate to their vernal breeding pools, this cold dry spell is exactly the weather respite we needed after trying to make the difficult predictions last week. It gives us time to regroup, get some sleep and to stop checking NOAA and Weather.com and WeatheUunderground every 5 minutes.  

As anyone knows that came out to the road on Tuesday or Wednesday nights, we had the road to our human-selves. It just wasn't amphibian weather yet. That doesn't mean it wasn't a good time out there and an opportunity to revel in the unpredictability of nature. But with a little patience and a little perseverance, we will all hopefully be treated to an awesome amphibian-filled evening some time soon. So when will that be?

The next few days and early next week will be dry and cold, so no migrations and no road closings are anticipated. We are carefully watching the forecasts for the middle of next week when a possible significant storm in the mid-Atlantic\Northeast is forecast. This storm is still in the Pacific Northwest so there is still a great deal of uncertainty what will happen. It could be even be snow. As we get closer, we will update what we think may happen. The emphasis here is "think" and "might" because unlike Crinkleroot, our salamander mascot that the award winning nature writer Jim Arnosky has graciously allowed us to use, we simply can't speak salamander.