Friends of the East Brunswick Environmental Commission

All week we've been watching the weather to see if conditions would be right for closing the road. For the last few days it seemed like Thursday and then Friday would be a good bet for warm temperatures and rain. But with each successive NOAA forecast, the rain gets reduced despite the temperatures remaining way above normal. Yesterday the rain forecast  for today was compressed into a period after 1AM and even then, just a light round of drizzle or showers and only for a few hours. Even as late as yesterday, Friday looked like an all day rain event. But this morning, the NOAA forecast runs are for the rain to be light and to end before noon followed by windy and quickly drying conditions. This is not the scenario we like to see for an evening migration. So, for now, we are keeping our eye on each NOAA weather forecast update, but it doesnt look very promising for Friday now. There also isnt much rain in the long range forecasts after that through mid-week. But, today and tomorrow the temperatures should be lovely, salamanders or not, so no sense not enjoying them! And things ARE happening. Yesterday in northern Delaware I saw the first two anglewing butterflies (comma or Question marks) of the year and a garter snake. The anglewing butterflies overwinter as adults and come out on warm late winter or spring days, but February 22 is really pushing it. Garter snakes also often sun themselves outside their winter hibernacula on these warm days, but again February 22 is really early. So, the trend this year continues to be unusually warm and with it an added difficulty predicting our salamander migration beyond the normal complexities we deal with. I guess it just makes it that much more fun to try and figure out what might happen.

SAVE THE DATE: Next Thursday, March 1st from 7-9PM Dave Moskowitz will be giving a talk about our salamanders and frogs and vernal pools at the Cultural Arts Center on Cranbury Road. As with all of our Friends programs, its FREE. Details on the Friends website at www.friendsebec.com 

Here is the latest NOAA forecast run from very early this morning:

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

MODELS CONTINUE TO OFFER SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS FOR FRIDAYS

SCENARIO. WHAT THEY DO AGREE ON IS THAT THE MAIN LOW WILL CROSS

THE OHIO VALLEY AND MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS TIME OF YEAR IT

IS DIFFICULT FOR A WARM FRONT TO JUST RUSH NORTHWARD UP THE EAST

COAST. AND THE MODELS ARE INDEED SLOWING IT`S NORTHWARD PROGRESSION

ONCE IT GETS INTO OUR FORECAST AREA. IT MAY NEVER CLEAR OUR NORTHERN

SECTIONS AND, IF IT DOES, IT WILL RAPIDLY BE FOLLOWED BY THE COLD

FRONT LATE IN THE DAY. ONE THING APPEARS EVIDENT --- SOUTH OF THE

WARM FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR. THE GFS BRINGS LOWER 70S INTO

SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND MID 70S INTO OUR SOUTHERN DELMARVA AREA.

WE DIDN`T GO QUITE THAT HIGH, BUT USING A BLEND OF THE MET/MAV

BROUGHT HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 60S IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND INTO

THE LOWER 70S IN THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA REGION. PHILLY SHOULD HAVE

NO TROUBLE GETTING INTO THE MID 60S. THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS

SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY MORNING. THIS

WILL ALLOW SKIES TO PARTIALLY CLEAR AS WINDS SWING AROUND TO THE

SOUTHWEST AND THEN WEST, AT LEAST IN THE WORLD OF THE GFS/NAM.

THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND WOULDN`T BRING THE COLD FRONT ACROSS

UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS. WE LEANED AWAY FROM THIS SOLUTION.